WPF, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) framework and the current (2025) food‑security and malnutrition situation in Gaza

Situation in GAZA

Gaza in mid‑2025 is in the midst of a human-made famine, with global institutions warning that thousands are already dying or at imminent risk due to starvation and associated diseases. The crisis stems from combination of siege-induced food shortages, market collapse, infrastructure destruction, and unsafe or blocked aid delivery, with profound repercussions for nutrition, public health, and child development. Humanitarian experts call for immediate, unimpeded access and restoration of food aid, local agriculture, and essential services to prevent an irreversible humanitarian catastrophe.

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Issue Current Status (2025)
Population affected ~2.1 million (100%) facing IPC Phase 3+
Catastrophe phase (IPC 5) ~244k people (~12%)
Acute malnutrition (children) 65k–71k cases, ~14k severe
Famine threshold Reached in many areas per IPC/WHO
Food aid delivery Blocked since Mar 2; partially resumed under high risk
Mortality Hundreds dead from starvation and aid-related violence
Local food production Destroyed >75% of cropland; livestock severely depleted
Human rights implications Allegations of deliberate starvation policy

(Time, 2025., Reuters, 2025, The Guardian , 2025)

1 The IPC Framework

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is a multi-agency initiative providing standardized, evidence‑based assessments of food insecurity and acute malnutrition. It categorizes situations into five phases:

  • Phase 1 – Minimal: food security adequate.

  • Phase 2 – Stressed: borderline insecurity or uncertainty about food access.

  • Phase 3 – Crisis: significant food consumption gaps, or livelihoods at risk.

  • Phase 4 – Emergency: extreme food consumption gaps, high acute malnutrition rates, or rapid decline in livelihoods.

  • Phase 5 – Catastrophe (Famine): goats Famine—indicating households enduring starvation, death rates meeting famine criteria, and acute malnutrition above thresholds.

IPC analyses inform both crisis response and longer-term programming, anchoring policy and humanitarian decisions.

2. Gaza’s Food Security Context in 2025

The Gaza Strip—home to approximately 2.1 million people—has endured a prolonged conflict since October 2023, exacerbated by an Israeli blockade of humanitarian and commercial supplies, which began in March 2025. The effects have been catastrophic: destruction of food infrastructure, collapse of agricultural systems, and skyrocketing food prices (flour up to 3,000 % since February 2025) ( WHO,2025) 


3. IPC Assessment: April–Early May 2025

Between 1 April and 10 May 2025, IPC analysis classified 93 % of Gaza’s population (~1.95 million people) in Phase 3 (Crisis) or above . Within this:

  • 12 % (≈ 244 000 people) were in Phase 5 (Catastrophe),

  • 44 % (≈ 925 000 people) in Phase 4 (Emergency),

  • The remaining 37 % (≈ 800 000) in Phase 3 (Crisis)  (IPC INFO,2025) 

4. Projection: May–September 2025

For the period 11 May to 30 September 2025, the entire Gaza population is projected to face at least IPC Phase 3, with 54 % (~1.1 million) in Phase 4, and 22 % (~470 000) in Phase 5 Famine (Phase 5) remains undclared but is deemed increasingly likely absent urgent action. (ALJAZEERA, 2025; WHO, 2025; UN 2025)

5. Nutritional Impact: Acute Malnutrition

  • IPC and WHO estimate ~71 000 children aged 6–59 months will suffer acute malnutrition (including ~14 100 severe cases) between April 2025 and March 2026; nearly 17 000 pregnant and breastfeeding women will require nutrition treatment

  • In Gaza City, acute malnutrition among under‑fives has surged to ~16.5 %, crossing critical thresholds for famine classification (NUTRITION INSIGHT,2025)

6. Thresholds for Famine & Onset Indicators

By late July 2025, IPC Alert signalled that at least two of the three famine thresholds had been breached:

  1. Extreme food consumption disruptions (over 39 % of people going days without eating),

  2. Acute malnutrition above ~30 % in children under five in parts of Gaza,

  3. Mortality thresholds remain unconfirmed due to limited data access 

However, formal famine declaration hinges on all three criteria and reliable mortality data, which remains unavailable due to the collapse of health infrastructure and restricted access (APNEWS,2025)

7. Key Drivers & Systemic Collapse

  • Blockade and impeded humanitarian access have disrupted food, medicine, and water flows. WFP kitchens closed by April 2025 due to empty stocks, and over a quarter million displaced persons rely on diminishing aid distribution points .

  • Agrifood systems have collapsed: ~75 % of cropland destroyed, livestock numbers decimated (e.g. cattle down to ~3.8 %, poultry to ~1.4 %), wells and irrigation nonfunctional 

  • Coping mechanisms have failed: households resort to extreme strategies—collecting and selling garbage; many report "no valuable garbage remains"  (OCHA, 2025)  

8. IPC, FAO, WHO, WFP, and UNICEF call for:

  • Immediate lifting of blockades and hostilities,

  • Unhindered humanitarian access,

  • Protection of civilian infrastructure and aid corridors,

  • Resumption of commercial supply chains and support to rebuild local food production, including restoration of agriculture, livestock capacities, nutrition programs, and WASH services  (WHO, 2025; UN 2025, ALJAZEERA, 2025) 

9. Summary Table
PeriodIPC ≥ Phase 3Phase 4 (Emergency)Phase 5 (Catastrophe/Famine risk)
1 Apr–10 May 2025~93 % (~1.95 m)~44 % (~925 k)~12 % (~244 k)
11 May–30 Sep 2025 (proj)100 %~54 % (~1.1 m)~22 % (~470 k)

10. Discussion

The IPC classification for Gaza in 2025 reveals an unprecedented transition from crisis to systemic famine risk. While official famine (Phase 5) has not been formally declared, hollowing of food and malnutrition indicators, alongside mass displacement and infrastructure collapse, suggest two of the three famine thresholds have been exceeded in multiple regions. Statistical validation is hindered by disrupted data systems, complicating formal declarations and legal mechanisms for famine relief.

Notably, the situation underscores a fundamental human-made crisis: food availability off‑site exists, yet access is blocked, rendering populations at risk. Drivers include strategic destruction of agrifood infrastructure and blockade of essential inputs—magnifying food insecurity beyond mere scarcity into systemic structural collapse.

References